For 1999, Internet Stocks, Y2K Will Be Big Stories
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01/14/99
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Happy New Year! As the dust settles on 1998, lets look
ahead toward 1999 and beyond.
First, the Y2K problem. If you use a at home or work, test it
to see if it will operate correctly on January 1, 2000, especially
if you use a checkbook program or bookkeeping software! We test
our nine computers and found that five could not past this test. You
will also notice a lot of press coverage from the IRS and other governmental
agencies and private companies, (such as banks, brokers, etc.) saying
that they are getting Y2K compliant now. It is estimated that
businesses, federal, state and local governments will spend up to
$1 trillion dollars on correcting this problem.
The Securities and Exchange commission has already been to our offices
to inspect us to see if we are compliant and what steps we have taken
to see what compliance steps our outside vendors, i.e., broker/dealers,
mutual fund companies, etc. have taken.
Internet and technology stocks are hot! NASDAQ and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average have set new highs and will be volatile. Earning
at larger companies are slowing as our economy slows, so speculation
in smaller companies of the internet are attracting a lot of buyers.
Be Careful! It can be a scary ride down. We are
not recommending big positions in speculative companies or funds,
however speculating with smaller amounts of money may be okay if your
taken care of other financial planning prerequisites.
Roth IRAs are not dead. Conversion from regular IRAs
to Roth IRAs still make since, even without the special tax
treatment on the conversion. Calculate your conversion on this website.
Chris Cooper
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Index of Earlier Articles
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DON'T SELL NOW!
The financial problems of
Asia and the political and financial problems of Russia, conbined
with concerns that these developments will impact the rest of the
world, have contributed greatly to the decline in many financial
markets. The US market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial
Average has dropped 23.9% from its intraday high, which technically
signals the beginning of a bear market. The US economy remains strong,
with GDP expected at 2.5% this year and next. Inflation is dormant,
interest rates are declining further and unemployment is historically
low. Both Yeltsin and Clinton are deeply wounded in their respective
countries, although for different reasons, yet the summit is an
important psychological boost for Russia to remain on a path to
capitalism. Over the short term, stocks will remain nervous, yet
we will have positive economic news on earnings, housing, and unemployment.
These are the primary reasons why we are NOT IN A BEAR MARKET. Thus
investors should remain fully invested and be patient. Do not panic.
I still see the Dow reaching back above 9300 towards the 10,000
level over the next six months. Buy stocks now if you have the money
as this sale will not come again. - C.C.
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Correction or Recession? What Happened?
China is in deflation - profits
in Chinese companies are down 50%. Japan is in a recession and has
been for some time. The rest of Southeast Asia is in a funk. Russia
has currency problems. Has this hurt the USA? In many ways NO! It
may have helped our economy to not overheat and cause the FED to
raise short term interest rates and caused a bear market in stocks.
Instead, we have a slowly rolling economy with a minor pause in
a bull market for all stocks and plenty of money to go into the
markets. High Tech companies have too much in inventory, with personal
computers saturating the market now in 43% of all homes. The last
time this happened to a sector of the economy was in the 1950's
when Television sets saturated the market at 41%. The gap between
prices and wages has created a profit squeeze for US companies.
Prices are hard to push up because of global competition. Wages
are up due to labor shortages. And for many companies in the S&P
500 there is little or no growth in earnings per share. So where
do we put money now? Right where we've been putting money, in good
quality US and Foreign stocks and bonds. They're on sale, and prices
won't look this good ever again. Low inflation, low interest rates,
lower capital gains tax rates and Holding Periods along with reasonable
valuations make this a great time to go long. The Dow will break
the 9300 barrier again this year and interest rates will fall further.
Go For It! - Chris 8/12/98
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Chris Cooper Offers Market Assessment and Tax
Law Update
Stock Performance has been
a mixed bag this past quarter, yet the Standard & Poor's 500
set a new high on June 29th. The S & P 500 index is a broader
based index of 500 large cap stocks compared to the Dow Jones 30
Industrials and ofiten is considered a better measure of the stock
market. But hurt by the Asian economic crisis, not all stocks have
participated - despite help from lower interest rates and a strong
bond market. Asset allocation pays off in times like these, and
that's why we don't bet the farm in any one sector.
Congress is passing a technical corrections law that will allow
you to convert your IRA to the new Roth IRA this year and convert
it back. If you change your mind after converting, you can change
back by the due date of your 1998 tax return plus extensions. This
is good new becuase it takes the fear our of conversion. Please
keep reading about Roth IRA in our newsletter and elsewhere and
keep in touch regarding conversion.
Please accept this as our annual offer to provide you with the most
current edition of our Form ADV Part II as required by the Investment
Advisors Act of 1940.
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Capital Gain Issues, Our Market Outlook &
El Nino
Capital gain rules have become
much more complex since enactment of last years major tax
reform legislation. But as we slog through a very tough tax season,
I hate to complain about it.
Capital gains tax problems
are good problems. With roaring stock market gains for the past
three years, more of you have more capital gain planning issues.
The lower capital gains rates and holding periods, while complex,
could not have come along at a better time. Fortunately, we recommended
some tax planning moves late last year to take advantage of the
new rules, which worked out well for many of you.
Meanwhile, the outlook is
good. While a financial advisor with a crystal ball is liable to
end up eating glass, Ill give you my two-sentence assessment
and predictions for the market. Low unemployment, higher wages and
increased consumer spending are fueling our economy. Lower interest
rates will steer savings into stocks and stock mutual funds, and
the Dow Jones Industrials could see 9,300 before years end.
Come to our upcoming IRS
Small Business Tax Workshops: Wednesdays, June 10, July 15, September
23 and October 28. All are at the Federal Building, 234 Summit Street,
Room 318, from 9 a.m. until 4:30 p.m. Lets hope El Niño stays
off Wall Street!
Chris
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With 97 Behind Us, Heres
My View On The Markets
Happy New Year, including
but not limited to all corporate, calendar and fiscal years! With
1997 behind us, it's time to review all the goings-on of the past
year. Stocks have had one of their best years ever, yet many of
us concentrate only on the fact that were not hitting
a new record high in stock indexes. Relax, it's a good market and
a good economy. Interest rates on long-term bonds are near the lowest
point theyve been in 24 years. The curve on the graph of interest
rates is now flatter, with short-term rate at 5.5% and long rates
near 5.9%. This flattening of the yield curve usually indicates
a recession is near, yet little evidence of that may appear for
a long time, if at all. Corporate earnings may slow their robust
growth, with trading partners in Southeast Asia having troubles,
but look for continued full employment, which aids growth in consumer
spending. Retailers may not have had a Merry Christmas, but competition
from mail order, specialty stores and changes in consumer preferences
may be the culprits. We are moresophisticated, and retailers, including
car dealers are needing to change with the times. Tax season, and
with it the changes in the tax laws are upon us. Do make your appointment
early for your tax return preparation, as there will be a lot to
talk about.
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